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Canadian federal election, 2004

A Canadian federal election will most likely be held in early 2004.

Canadian voters will elect a new House of Commons (the lower house of Parliament). If the currently governing Liberal Party of Canada wins neither a majority nor a plurality, the Governor General will invite the leader of the party that controls the most seats to form a new government. In the event of a tie, parliamentary tradition states that the party that had more seats in the last sitting will form government.

All four of the five major parties will run under different leaders in this next election than the last, held in 2000. This election will also mark the debut of the new Conservative Party of Canada.

Most pundits are predicting that new Prime Minister Paul Martin will lead the Liberals to a fourth majority government, possibly setting a record for number of seats won. Opponents contend that the people of Canada do not yet know much about Martin, and also that the Conservative Party of Canada does not yet have a leader, which is one of the most crucial elements in any party.

Though this election will likely not be suspenseful as to who wins power, it may, however, create interest about which party, if any, can form a credible opposition.

Table of contents
1 Opposition parties
2 Timeline
3 Upcoming events
4 Leadership races of 2003 and 2004
5 Recent poll numbers
6 2004 federal representation
7 Current distribution
8 Seat by seat breakdown

Opposition parties

In recent months the New Democratic Party of Canada, Progressive Conservative Party of Canada, and Canadian Alliance have been running a distant second, third and fourth in the polls. Many pundits have been predicting that the combination of the popular and fiscally conservative Martin,along with continued vote-splitting on the right, could lead to the almost total annihilation of the Progressive Conservatives and Canadian Alliance. This fear has prompted those two parties to form a united Conservative Party of Canada, which was approved by the Canadian Alliance on December 5, 2003 and by the Progressive Conservatives on December 6, 2003.

Prior to the announcement of the union of the right-of-centre parties, many were predicting an NDP official opposition. A new leader, clear social democratic policies, and the possible collapse of the other opposition parties may allow the NDP to make breakthroughs in all the regions of the country.

While many predicted that the election of the strongly federalist Quebec Liberal Party under Jean Charest would give the Bloc Québécois (BQ) new purpose and assure it a place in the next parliament, the party continues to sink in the polls. The continued decline in support for sovereignty, an unpopular leader, the massive popularity of Paul Martin, the renewed presence of the NDP and possibly a united conservative/decentralist party in the province, threatens the official status of the BQ.


2004 2003 2002

Upcoming events

Leadership races of 2003 and 2004

Recent poll numbers

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2004 federal representation

Due to the 2001 census, Canada's 301 electoral districts will increase to 308. Boundary changes will take effect across the country to even out population redistribution, and seven new districts will be formed. Each province has a minimum amount of seats, and therefore it is rare for a province to lose seats in a redistribution. These changes still need to be passed by the House of Commons (as of December 12, 2003); they are expected to take effect in April 2004.

Current distribution

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Party Party Leader Seats Popular Vote
Before After # %
Bloc Québécois Gilles Duceppe 33      
Canadian Action Party Paul T. Hellyer 0      
Communist Party of Canada Miguel Figueroa 0      
Conservative Party of Canada John Lynch-Staunton (interim) 72      
The Green Party of Canada Jim Harris 0      
Liberal Party of Canada Paul Martin 170      
Marijuana Party Marc-Boris St-Maurice 0      
Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada Sandra L. Smith 0      
New Democratic Party Jack Layton 14      
Independent 9      
No Affiliation 0      
Vacant 3 308  
The parties below have not yet been granted full recognition by Elections Canada
Absolutely Absurd Party Jan Jagiellowicz  
Christian Heritage Party Ronald O. Gray
National Alternative Party Gilles Lavoie
The Ontario Party of Canada George E. Burns
The parties below are registered, but do not plan on fielding candidates
Natural Law Party of Canada Allen Faguy  
Other elections: 1988 1993 1997 2000 2004
Canadian federal elections

Seat by seat breakdown

Cabinet Ministers and Party Leaders are denoted in bold

Newfoundland and Labrador Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Avalon     new district John Efford may face Rex Barnes
Bonavista--Exploits     Rex Barnes Conservative
Humber--St. Barbe--Baie Verte     Gerry Byrne Liberal
Labrador     Lawrence O'Brien Liberal
Random--Burin--St. George's     Bill Mathews Liberal
St. John's North     Norman E. Doyle Conservative
St. John's South     Loyola Hearn Conservative
Prince Edward Island Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Cardigan     Lawrence MacAulay Liberal
Charlottetown     Shawn Murphy Liberal
Egmont     Joe McGuire Liberal
Malpeque     Wayne Easter Liberal
Nova Scotia Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Cape Breton--Canso     Rodger Cuzner Liberal
Central Nova     Peter MacKay Conservative
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour     Wendy Lill NDP
Halifax     Alexa McDonough NDP
Halifax West     Geoff Regan Liberal
Kings--Hants     Scott Brison Liberal defected from PC Party, Dec/03
North Nova     Bill Casey Conservative
Sackville--Eastern Shore     Peter Stoffer NDP
South Shore--St. Margaret's     Gerald Keddy Conservative
Sydney--Victoria     Mark Eyking Liberal
West Nova     Robert Thibault Liberal
New Brunswick Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Acadie--Bathurst     Yvon Godin NDP
Beauséjour     Dominic LeBlanc Liberal
Fredericton     Andy Scott Liberal
Fundy     John Herron Ind. PC will not run again for Tories
Madawaska--Restigouche     Jeannot Castonguay Liberal
Miramichi     Charles Hubbard Liberal
Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe     Claudette Bradshaw Liberal
St. Croix--Belleisle     Greg Thompson Conservative
Saint John     Elsie Wayne Conservative
Tobique--Mactaquac     Andy Savoy Liberal
Quebec (St. Lawrence Valley) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Beauport     new district
Berthier--Maskinongé     vacant
Charlesbourg     new district
Charlevoix--Montmorency     Gérard Asselin BQ
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord     André Harvey Liberal
Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine     Georges Farrah Liberal
Joliette     Pierre Paquette BQ
Jonquière--Alma     new district
Lévis--Bellechasse     new district
Lotbinière--Chutes-de-la-Chaudière     new district
Louis-Hébert     Hélène Scherrer Liberal
Louis-Saint-Laurent     Jean Guy Carignan Ind.
Manicouagan     Ghislain Fournier BQ
Matapédia--Matane     Jean-Yves Roy BQ
Montcalm     new district
Portneuf     Claude Duplain Liberal
Québec     Christiane Gagnon BQ
Repentigny     Benoît Sauvageau BQ
Richelieu     Louis Plamondon BQ
Rimouski--Témiscouata     new district
Rivière-du-Loup--Montmagny     new district
Roberval     Michel Gauthier BQ
Saint-Maurice--Champlain     Marcel Gagnon BQ
Trois-Rivières     Yves Rocheleau BQ
Quebec (Eastern Townships & Montérégie) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Beauce     Claude Drouin Liberal
Beauharnois--Salaberry     Serge Marcil Liberal
Brome--Missisquoi     Denis Paradis Liberal
Chambly--Borduas     Ghislain Lebel Ind.
Châteguay--Saint-Constant     Robert Lanctôt Liberal defected from Bloc, Dec/03
Compton--Stanstead     David Price Liberal
Drummond     Pauline Picard BQ
Mégantic--L'Érable     Gérard Binet Liberal
Richmond--Arthabaska     André Bachand Ind. PC will not run again
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot     Yvan Loubier BQ
Saint-Jean     Claude Bachand BQ
Shefford     Diane St-Jacques Liberal
Sherbrooke     Serge Cardin BQ
Vaudreuil-Soulanges     Nick Discepola Liberal
Quebec (Montreal, Laval & Longueuil) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Ahuntsic     Eleni Bakopanos Liberal
Alfred-Pellan     Carole-Marie Allard Liberal
Bourassa     Denis Coderre Liberal
Brossard--La Prairie     Jacques Saada Liberal
Hochelaga     Réal Ménard BQ
Honoré-Mercier     Yvon Charbonneau Liberal
Jeanne-Le Ber     Liza Frulla Liberal
Lac-Saint-Louis     Clifford Lincoln Liberal
La Pointe-de-l'Île     Francine Lalonde BQ
LaSalle--Émard     Paul Martin Liberal
Laurier     Gilles Duceppe BQ
Laval     new district
Laval--Les Îles     Raymonde Folco Liberal
Longueuil     Caroline St-Hilaire BQ
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin     new district
Mount Royal     Irwin Cotler Liberal
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine     Marlene Jennings Liberal
Outremont     Martin Cauchon Liberal
Papineau     Pierre Pettigrew Liberal
Pierrefonds--Dollard     Bernard Patry Liberal
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie     Bernard Bigras BQ
Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert     Pierrette Venne Ind.
Saint-Lambert     Yolande Thibeault Liberal
Saint-Laurent--Cartierville     Stéphane Dion Liberal
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel     Massimo Pacetti Liberal
Verchères--Les-Patriotes     Stéphane Bergeron BQ
Westmount--Ville-Marie     Lucienne Robillard Liberal
Quebec (Laurentides, Outaouais & North) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Abitibi--Témiscamingue     Gilbert Barrette Liberal
Argenteuil--Mirabel     Mario Laframboise BQ
Gatineau     Mark Assad Liberal
Hull--Aylmer     Marcel Proulx Liberal
Laurentides--Labelle     new district
Nunavik--Eeyou     Guy St-Julien Liberal
Pontiac     Robert Bertrand Liberal
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles     Gilles-A. Perron BQ
Rivière-du-Nord     new district
Terrebonne--Blainville     Diane Bourgeois BQ
Ontario (Eastern) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Carleton--Lanark     Scott Reid Conservative
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell     Don Boudria Liberal
Kingston and the Islands     Peter Milliken Liberal
Lanark--Frontenac--Lennox and Addington     new district
Leeds--Grenville     Joe Jordan Liberal
Nepean--Carleton     David Pratt Liberal
Ottawa Centre     vacant Richard Mahoney (Lib) vs Ed Broadbent (NDP)
Ottawa--Orléans     Eugène Bellemare Liberal
Ottawa South     John Manley Liberal will not run again
Ottawa--Vanier     Mauril Bélanger Liberal
Ottawa West--Nepean     Marlene Catterall Liberal
Prince Edward--Hastings     Lyle Vanclief Liberal will not run again
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke     Cheryl Gallant Conservative
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry     Bob Kilger Liberal
Ontario (Central) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Barrie     Aileen Carroll Liberal
Clarington--Scugog--Uxbridge     Alex Shepherd Liberal
Dufferin--Caledon     Murray Calder Liberal
Grey--Bruce--Owen Sound     Ovid L. Jackson Liberal
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock     John O'Reilly Liberal
Newmarket--Aurora     new district
Northumberland--Quinte West     Paul Harold Macklin Liberal
Peterborough     Peter Adams Liberal
Simcoe--Grey     Paul Bonwick Liberal
Simcoe North     Paul DeVillers Liberal
York--Simcoe     Karen Kraft Sloan Liberal
Ontario (Greater Toronto Area) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Ajax--Pickering     Dan McTeague Liberal
Beaches--East York     Maria Minna Liberal
Bramalea--Gore--Malton     Gurbax S. Malhi Liberal
Brampton--Springdale     Sarkis Assadourian Liberal
Brampton West     Colleen Beaumier Liberal
Davenport     Charles Caccia Liberal
Don Valley East     David Collenette Liberal
Don Valley West     John Godfrey Liberal
Eglinton--Lawrence     Joe Volpe Liberal
Etobicoke Centre     vacant
Etobicoke--Lakeshore     Jean Augustine Liberal
Etobicoke North     Roy Cullen Liberal
Markham--Unionville     John McCallum Liberal
Mississauga--Brampton South     new district
Mississauga East--Cooksville     Albina Guarnieri Liberal
Mississauga--Erindale     new district
Mississauga South     Paul Szabo Liberal
Mississauga--Streetsville     Steve Mahoney Liberal
Oak Ridges--Markham     new district
Oshawa     Ivan Grose Liberal
Parkdale--High Park     Sarmite Bulte Liberal
Pickering--Scarborough East     new district
Richmond Hill     new district
St. Paul's     Carolyn Bennett Liberal
Scarborough--Agincourt     Jim Karygiannis Liberal
Scarborough Centre     John Cannis Liberal
Scarborough--Guildwood     new district
Scarborough--Rouge River     Derek Lee Liberal
Scarborough Southwest     Tom Wappel Liberal
Thornhill     Elinor Caplan Liberal
Toronto Centre     Bill Graham Liberal
Toronto--Danforth     Dennis Mills Liberal will face NDP leader 'Jack Layton
Trinity--Spadina     Tony Ianno Liberal May face Olivia Chow
Vaughan     new district
Whitby--Oshawa     Judi Longfield Liberal
Willowdale     Jim Peterson Liberal
York Centre     Art Eggleton Liberal
York South--Weston     Alan Tonks Liberal
York West     Judy Sgro Liberal
Ontario (Hamilton, Halton & Niagara) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale     John Bryden Liberal
Burlington     Paddy Torsney Liberal
Halton     Julian Reed Liberal
Hamilton Centre     Stan Keyes Liberal
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek     Sheila Copps Liberal Tony Valeri will challenge for nom.
Hamilton Mountain     Beth Phinney Liberal
Niagara Falls     Gerry Pillitteri Liberal
Niagara West--Glanbrook     Tony Valeri Liberal
Oakville     M. A. Bonnie Brown Liberal
St. Catharines     Walt Lastewka Liberal
Welland     new district
Ontario (Southwestern) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Brant     Jane Stewart Liberal
Cambridge     Janko Peric Liberal
Chatham-Kent--Essex     Jerry Pickard Liberal
Elgin--Middlesex--London     Gar Knutson Liberal
Essex     Susan Whelan Liberal
Guelph     Brenda Chamberlain Liberal
Haldimand--Norfolk     Bob Speller Liberal
Huron--Bruce     Paul Steckle Liberal
Kitchener Centre     Karen Redman Liberal
Kitchener--Conestoga     new district
Kitchener--Waterloo     Andrew Teledgi Liberal
London--Fanshawe     Pat O'Brien Liberal
London North Centre     Joe Fontana Liberal
London West     Sue Barnes Liberal
Middlesex--Kent--Lambton     Rose-Marie Ur Liberal
Oxford     John Finlay Liberal
Perth--Wellington     Gary Schellenberger Conservative
Sarnia--Lambton     Roger Gallaway Liberal
Wellington--Halton Hills     new district Garth Turner seeking Cons. nom.
Windsor--Tecumseh     Joe Comartin NDP
Windsor West     Brian Masse NDP
Ontario (Northern) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing     Brent St. Denis Liberal
Kenora     Bob Nault Liberal
Nickel Belt     Raymond Bonin Liberal
Nipissing--Timiskaming     Bob Wood Liberal
Parry Sound--Muskoka     Andy Mitchell Liberal
Sault Ste. Marie     Carmen F. Provenzano Liberal
Sudbury     Diane Marleau Liberal
Thunder Bay--Rainy River     Stan Dromisky Liberal
Thunder Bay--Superior North     Joe Comuzzi Liberal
Timmins--James Bay     Réginald Bélair Liberal
Manitoba Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Brandon--Souris     Rick Borotsik T.B.A. may not join Cons.
Charleswood--St. James     John Harvard Liberal
Churchill     Bev Desjarlais NDP
Dauphin--Swan River     Inky Mark Conservative
Elmwood--Transcona     Bill Blaikie NDP
Kildonan--St. Paul     Rey Pagtakhan Liberal
Portage--Lisgar     Brian Pallister Conservative
Provencher     Vic Toews Conservative
Saint Boniface     Raymond Simard Liberal
Selkirk--Interlake     Howard Hilstrom Conservative
Winnipeg Centre     Pat Martin NDP
Winnipeg North     Judy Wasylyclia-Leis NDP
Winnipeg South     Reg Alcock Liberal
Winnipeg South Centre     Anita Neville Liberal
Saskatchewan Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Battlefords--Lloydminster     Gerry Ritz Conservative
Blackstrap     Lynne Yelich Conservative
Churchill River     Rick Laliberte Liberal
Cypress Hills--Grasslands     David L. Anderson Conservative
Palliser     Dick Proctor NDP
Prince Albert     Brian Fitzpatrick Conservative
Regina--Lumsden--Lake Centre     Larry Spencer Conservative
Regina--Qu'Appelle     Lorne Nystrom NDP
Saskatoon--Humboldt     Jim Pankiw Independent
Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar     Carol Skelton Conservative
Saskatoon--Wanuskewin     Maurice Vellacott Conservative
Souris--Moose Mountain     Roy H. Bailey Conservative
Wascana     Ralph Goodale Liberal
Yorkton--Melville     Gary Breitkeuz Conservative
Alberta Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Athabasca     Dave Chatters Conservative
Calgary East     Deepak Obhrai Conservative
Calgary North Centre     new district Jim Prentice seeking Cons. nom.
Calgary Northeast     Art Hanger Conservative
Calgary--Nose Hill     Diane Ablonczy Conservative
Calgary South Centre     Joe Clark Ind. PC will not run again
Calgary Southeast     Jason Kenney Conservative
Calgary Southwest     Stephen Harper Conservative
Calgary West     Rob Anders Conservative
Crowfoot     Kevin Sorenson Conservative
Edmonton--Beaumont     David Kilgour Liberal
Edmonton Centre     new district Anne McLellan likely to run here
Edmonton East     Peter Goldring Conservative
Edmonton--Leduc     new district
Edmonton--St. Albert     new district
Edmonton--Sherwood Park     new district
Edmonton--Spruce Grove     new district
Edmonton--Strathcona     Rahim Jaffer Conservative
Lethbridge     Rick Casson Conservative Ken Nicol will seek Lib. nom.
Macleod     Grant Hill Conservative will not run again
Medicine Hat     Monte Solberg Conservative
Peace River     Charlie Penson Conservative
Red Deer     Bob Mills Conservative
Vegreville--Wainwright     new district
Westlock--St. Paul     new district
Wetaskiwin     Dale Johnston Conservative
Wild Rose     Myron Thompson Conservative
Yellowhead     Bob Merrifield Conservative
British Columbia (Interior) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Cariboo--Prince George     Philip Mayfield Conservative
Kamloops--Thompson     Betty Hinton Conservative
Kelowna     Werner Schmidt Conservative
Kootenay--Columbia     Jim Abbott Conservative
North Okanagan--Shuswap     Darrel Stinson Conservative
Okanagan--Coquihalla     Stockwell Day Conservative
Prince George--Peace River     Jay Hill Conservative
Skeena--Bulkley Valley     Andy Burton Conservative
Southern Interior     Jim Gouk Conservative
British Columbia (Lower Mainland) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Abbotsford     Chuck Strahl Conservative
Burnaby--Douglas     Svend Robinson NDP
Burnaby--New Westminster     new district
Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon     new district
Delta--Richmond East     John M. Cummins Conservative
Dewdney--Alouette     Grant McNally Conservative
Fleetwood--Port Kells     new district
Langley     Randy White Conservative
Newton--North Delta     new district
New Westminster--Coquitlam     new district
North Vancouver     Ted White Conservative
Port Moody--Westwood--Port Coquitlam     James Moore Conservative
Richmond     Joe Peschisolido Liberal Raymond Chan will challenge for nom.
South Surrey--White Rock--Cloverdale     Val Meredith Conservative
Surrey North     Chuck Cadman Conservative
Vancouver Centre     Hedy Fry Liberal
Vancouver East     Libby Davies NDP
Vancouver Kingsway     Sophia Leung Liberal Ujjal Dosanjh may challenge for nom.
Vancouver Quadra     Stephen Owen Liberal
Vancouver South     Herb Dhaliwal Liberal will not run again
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast     John Reynolds Conservative
British Columbia (Vancouver Island) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca     Keith Martin Independent Martin will seek Lib. nom.
Nanaimo--Alberni     James Lunney Conservative
Nanaimo--Cowichan     Reed Elley Conservative will not run again
Saanich--Gulf Islands     Gary Lunn Conservative
Vancouver Island North     John Duncan Conservative
Victoria     David Anderson Liberal
Nunavut Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Nunavut     Nancy Karetak-Lindell Liberal
Northwest Territories Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Western Arctic     Ethel Blondin-Andrew Liberal
Yukon Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Yukon     Larry Bagnell Liberal